Aug 7, 2013

Gold - Targetting $978?

In this article, I will explain why I expect Gold to decline to +- $1000 before rallying sharply with a final target of $7500+ per ounce between 2017-2018.

As you can see in the chart below, the Fibonacci levels are working well, with each level acting as support and resistance.In this case, the 100% level is the 2011 top.

In 1976, gold bottomed exactly at $100, before exploding to $875 early 1980. So that $100 level was very important to say the least. Many people threw in the towel back then, only to see gold rise ever higher.
That's why I chose that level as a starting point, as I began playing with Fibonacci levels.
For now, Gold's all-time high was set in 2011 at $1.921,10, so that also has to be an important turning point.
So I took $100 as the 0.00% level, and $1.921,10% as the next level, being 23.60%, thereby assuming that we haven't reached Gold's top yet, and that the decline since 2011 is only an interim correction.
That results into a $7.816,70 per ounce price to get to the 100% level!
 Gold had been fixed at $35 for years, so I also chose to take that as a starting point. Then I got to a price target of $8.027,20 per ounce!

BUT... Now it gets interesting...
When we take $35 as the 0.00% level and $1.921,10 as the 100% level, then we can see that all fibo levels act very well as support and resistance (see the red and green arrows on the chart below).
We can also see that $1,200 (which is roughly the level where gold bottomed recently) is a fibonacci level. The next support comes in at $978.07, which is the 50% level.
The interesting thing about this, is that it is also the 0.00% level in the first chart I showed you, meaning that that is the final target for this correction - which began in 2011.
I expect Gold to drop towards this level somewhere between early and mid 2014, before exploding higher towards $7.500-$8.000 (the 423.60% level), somewhere between 2017-2018.

To be continued…

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